"Alexandre Boulerice acknowledges failure to adapt following the historical loss of the NPD"
Over the Edge: The NDP's Crash and Burn
After a humiliating rout in the recent elections, Montreal MP Alexandre Boulerice points the finger at the trade war with the U.S. as the root cause of the New Democratic Party's (NDP) downfall.
"We were trying to adapt, but we were caught in a storm of our own making," Boulerice tells Le Devoir. "Trump, Trudeau, and Carney, they all threw us a curveball, and we couldn't recover."
The election night saw the NDP caucus crumble from 24 to a paltry 7 seats - a record low since the party's inception in 1961. This plummet comes just a few months after the party was hovering in second place, according to an Angus Reid poll. By mid-December, the New Democrats were polling at 21%, five points ahead of Justin Trudeau's Liberals.
However, the trade dispute with President Trump quickly became the main topic of the election, making it difficult for then-leader Jagmeet Singh to compete with the economic expertise of Liberal leader Mark Carney, a former central banker. Despite new campaign strategies, the NDP failed to sway voters, according to the only Quebec NDP MP.
"We were trying to present Jagmeet as a guardian angel, here to look after the people," Boulerice explains over the phone. "But Carney was seen as the economic heavyweight with the right credentials, while Jagmeet was just a social butterfly."
Singh, who lost his British Columbia seat in the election, ultimately announced his resignation that night. With the party losing its official status in Ottawa, the number of interventions by its MPs in the House, as well as parliamentary funding and representation on committees, are all reduced.
The Interim Stage
A week after the electoral thrashing, the party entered a rebuilding phase, with Don Davies, a longtime NDP MP from Alberta, appointed as interim leader. Known for his key role in pharmaceutical coverage negotiations with the Trudeau government, Davies faces the helm in a brutal post-election landscape.
Boulerice anticipates a short interim period, with hopes for a new leader by year's end. "There's a sense of urgency among my colleagues, and the party's leadership to bring in a new leader, and soon."
The veteran MP has no intention of running for the next leadership race. "I'll focus on rebuilding the party," he affirms. "Unless there's some miraculous twist of fate, I probably won't be a contender."
Yet he leaves the door ever so slightly ajar. "I'll see how things shake out: parliament, recruitment, organizational structure. That'll be part of my thinking."
But he categorically rules out joining Carney's Liberals, who are only three seats away from obtaining their majority in the House. "Absolutely not, not even under duress," he says with a chuckle. "I'll never be a Liberal."
A "Temporarily Lost" Vote to the Liberals
Despite the rocky road ahead for the party's revival, Boulerice holds onto hope that the NDP's core electorate will quickly return to the fold in the next federal elections.
"Our voters haven't turned into Liberals, they're still Neo-Democrats, but it's as if they lent their votes to the Liberals due to the circumstances," he argues. "Carney represented a shield from the Conservatives, and we needed that shield."
However, a significant chunk of the base also flocked to the Conservatives led by Pierre Poilievre, particularly in the 17 ridings lost by the NDP, where the Conservatives gained 10 seats and the Liberals won 7.
"Our toughest challenge right now is to reconnect with our working-class base, unions, workers, and wives who turned to the Conservatives and Liberals this time," Alexandre Boulerice admits.
The rules and timetable for the leadership race will be established in the coming months.
To Cinema and Beyond (Enrichment Data)
While the trade war with the U.S. may have added fuel to the fire, scrutiny of the NDP's defeat uncovers several key factors that led to their downfall:
- Supply-and-Confidence Agreement with Liberals: The NDP's decision to form a supply-and-confidence agreement with the Liberal government in 2022 may have contributed to their decline, as it tied them more closely to the Liberals, which may have alienated some supporters.
- Eroding Approval Ratings: The party's approval ratings had significantly eroded since the COVID-19 pandemic, and they failed to effectively communicate their policy achievements to voters, leading to a disconnect between their accomplishments and public perception.
- Tactical Campaigning by Conservatives: The Conservatives strategically labeled the NDP as part of the "NDP-Liberal coalition," which weakened the NDP's appeal as an independent alternative.
- Historical Context and Performance: The NDP's performance in previous elections set a challenging foundation, with the party struggling to regain its earlier strength as the Official Opposition under Jack Layton's leadership.
- Leader's Personal Performance: Jagmeet Singh's personal performance, including losing his own riding in the election, added to the party's overall sense of defeat.
The role of the trade war with the U.S. in the NDP's defeat remains uncertain, as the factors leading to their loss primarily stemmed from internal political dynamics, strategic campaigning by opponents, and the party's inability to connect its policy achievements with voter expectations.
- Alexandre Boulerice, the Montreal MP, believes that the New Democratic Party's (NDP) downfall in the recent elections was triggered by the trade war with the U.S.
- Boulerice explains that the NDP, trying to adapt, were caught off guard by the unexpected challenges posed by Trump, Trudeau, and Carney.
- The NDP's decline was drastic, with their caucus size plummeting from 24 seats to a record low of 7 since the party's inception in 1961.
- Don Davies, a longtime NDP MP, was appointed as interim leader, taking on the arduous task of leading the party in the aftermath of the electoral loss.
- Bourlerice anticipates a short interim period and hopes for a new leader by the end of the year, yet he himself has no intention of running for leadership.
- Boulerice admits that reconnecting with the working-class base, unions, workers, and wives who turned to the Conservatives and Liberals will be the NDP's main challenge moving forward.
