Anticipated July inflation rates predicted to hold steady between 3.5% and 4.5%, according to the finance ministry's latest projections
According to the Ministry of Finance's latest economic outlook report as of July 2025, Pakistan’s projected inflation rate for July is around 3.5% to 4.5%, which is within the State Bank of Pakistan’s target range of 5.5% to 7.5% for the fiscal year ending June 2026. The economic growth forecast for the fiscal year 2025-26 is 3.6%, falling short of the government's target of 4.2%, but reflecting a slight upward revision from the previous fiscal year's growth of 2.7%.
The current account surplus is expected to be significant, with the report highlighting a surplus of $2.1 billion, marking the first annual surplus in 14 years. However, the exact current account surplus figure for July 2025 is not explicitly stated in available sources.
The fiscal deficit for the July-May period of FY25 has been contained at 3.1% of GDP, indicating improved fiscal discipline and resource management. The rebound in Large-Scale Manufacturing (LSM) is expected to boost imports of raw materials and intermediate goods while supporting exports of value-added products.
Pakistan's economy sustained growth momentum at 2.68% as of the latest data. Social protection and climate resilience will remain integral to aligning near-term economic actions with Pakistan's long-term development goals.
Real GDP is expected to grow by 4.2% in FY26, alongside continued price stabilization. LSM posted marginal growth of 0.2% year-on-year during the first eleven months of FY24.
In June 2025, imports grew by 25.8% to $5.2 billion, while exports rose 11.7% year-on-year to $2.75 billion. The current account surplus in June was $491 million.
Expected external sector stability is reinforced by the strengthening domestic demand, a stable exchange rate, steady global commodity prices, and improved foreign demand. These factors are likely to enhance exports, remittances, and imports in July 2025, contributing to sustainable economic recovery in the coming months. Strong foreign exchange inflows, a stable exchange rate, and enhanced confidence among stakeholders are key factors for this recovery.
In conclusion, while the inflation rate and economic growth rate projections for July 2025 and FY25-26 have been outlined, the exact current account surplus figure for July 2025 remains to be confirmed. The economic outlook suggests a modest recovery, with improved fiscal discipline, growing LSM, and a positive trade balance. However, ongoing focus on social protection, climate resilience, and continued price stabilization will be crucial for Pakistan's long-term development goals.
The Finance Ministry's report shows that Pakistan's economy is projected to have a significant current account surplus of $2.1 billion for the fiscal year ending June 2026, reinforcing the expected external sector stability. This surplus, however, is not explicitly stated for the month of July 2025 in the available sources.
Despite the projected inflation rate for July 2025 being within the State Bank of Pakistan’s target range, the cultural aspect of social protection and climate resilience will remain integral to aligning near-term economic actions with Pakistan's long-term development goals.
