Assessing the Approaching Surge in XRP Exchange-Traded Funds in 2025
The cryptocurrency market is abuzz with anticipation as regulatory signals, including the pending resolution in the Ripple lawsuit and shifting SEC posture under new leadership, have bolstered confidence in future XRP Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) approvals.
Multiple filings by 21Shares, Bitwise, WisdomTree, and Canary Capital for spot or futures XRP ETFs have been made, setting the stage for potential approval by late 2025. Experts estimate an 85% chance of XRP ETF approval around September or October 2025, with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) expected to announce final decisions on most XRP ETF applications by mid-October 2025, potentially October 17.
The SEC's updated "Listing Standards" for cryptocurrency exchange-traded products (ETPs) have played a significant role in this progress. These new standards allow any coin that has been traded in futures markets for at least six months on a regulated platform to qualify for an ETF, replacing a much longer review process with a shorter 75-day window following filing of a rule change. This aims to streamline approvals, including XRP ETFs.
Moreover, the SEC's new policy allows crypto-based redemptions, reducing operational inefficiencies, and aligning crypto ETFs with traditional commodity ETFs such as gold or Bitcoin. This policy shift also follows legal progress in the Ripple case, which may further accelerate approval chances.
As of August 2025, only the ProShares Ultra XRP ETF is approved in the U.S., but multiple applications from major asset managers remain pending. Meanwhile, Canada has already launched three spot XRP ETFs on the Toronto Stock Exchange in June 2025, giving it a lead over the U.S. market.
The XRP Options Put/Call Ratio has fallen to 0.68, indicating that traders are buying significantly more call options than put options. Technical analysis shows XRP surpassing key resistance levels, drawing fresh institutional interest. As a result, XRP prices have rallied as speculators priced in ETF potential and broader mainstream acceptance.
Implied Volatility (IV) for contracts expiring around the Q4 SEC decision deadlines has spiked to 95%, indicating that the market is bracing for a massive price move contingent on the news. The total value of all outstanding XRP futures contracts has surged to a two-year high of $1.8 billion. If approved, XRP ETFs are expected to draw substantial capital, tighten circulating supply, and introduce price-stabilizing mechanisms into XRP markets.
In summary, XRP ETF approval in the U.S. appears highly likely by October 2025 due to SEC regulatory amendments, market demand, and evolving legal clarity, with an official decision targeted in the September-October window. The potential launch of XRP ETFs could significantly impact the cryptocurrency market, offering investors a new avenue for investment and potentially stabilizing XRP prices.
[1] CoinDesk. (2025). SEC Updates Crypto ETF Listing Standards, Shortening Approval Timeline. [online] Available at: https://www.coindesk.com/business/2025/07/13/sec-updates-crypto-etf-listing-standards-shortening-approval-timeline/
[2] The Block. (2025). SEC Allows Crypto Redemptions for ETFs, Bringing Them Closer to Traditional Funds. [online] Available at: https://www.theblockcrypto.com/linked/96668/sec-allows-crypto-redemptions-for-etfs-bringing-them-closer-to-traditional-funds
[3] Bloomberg. (2025). Ripple Wins Major Victory in SEC Lawsuit, Boosting XRP ETF Hopes. [online] Available at: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-06-29/ripple-wins-major-victory-in-sec-lawsuit-boosting-xrp-etf-hopes
[4] Cointelegraph. (2025). Canada Leads U.S. in XRP ETF Adoption, Launching Three Spot Products. [online] Available at: https://cointelegraph.com/news/canada-leads-us-in-xrp-etf-adoption-launching-three-spot-products
- The updated "Listing Standards" by the SEC for cryptocurrency ETPs have played a significant role in potentially shortening the approval timeline for XRP ETFs, allowing any coin that has been traded in futures markets for at least six months on a regulated platform to qualify.
- The SEC's new policy allowing crypto-based redemptions brings crypto ETFs closer to traditional commodity ETFs such as gold or Bitcoin, reducing operational inefficiencies.
- Multiple applications for spot or futures XRP ETFs by 21Shares, Bitwise, WisdomTree, Canary Capital, and others have been made, setting the stage for potential approval by late 2025.
- As speculators price in ETF potential and broader mainstream acceptance, XRP prices have rallied, with the Implied Volatility (IV) for contracts expiring around the Q4 SEC decision deadlines spiking to 95%.
