Bitcoin's Long-Term Holders Signal Potential Bull Run End: Mixed Indications
In the world of cryptocurrency, Bitcoin's long-term holder behaviour has been a reliable indicator of market cycles, according to an assessment by CryptoQuant contributor PelinayPA. The long-term holder realised profit and loss (RPL) metrics have shown historical significance in predicting market cycle tops and bottoms.
Long-term holders, defined as individuals who keep Bitcoin dormant for more than about 155 days, play a crucial role in market dynamics. Because these holders typically resist selling during rallies, a surge in their realised profits can mark a shift from accumulation to distribution—often preceding cycle highs.
Historical data shows that surges in long-term holder realised profits correlate closely with Bitcoin’s market peaks. For instance, during the 2017 bull run, a pronounced increase in LTH profit realization coincided with the market top. Conversely, in bear markets like 2018–2019, LTHs slowed profit-taking and realised losses, signalling market bottoms.
The long-term holder (LTH) to short-term holder (STH) supply ratio and its contraction during distribution phases has also been identified as following a recognizable pattern across multiple cycle peaks. After an initial accumulation, sharp shifts to aggressive LTH selling mark market peaks, supported by historical on-chain data.
Recent events further underscore this metric’s importance. In 2025, long-term holders realised a record $2.5 billion in profits, surpassing previous highs, indicating an intense liquidity test. Despite this, Bitcoin prices remained near all-time highs, showing the market’s resilience but also highlighting the stress associated with such major distribution events that typically accompany cycle tops.
Analysts use these LTH RPL metrics to anticipate imminent market cycle turning points, especially to gauge when the bull run might be nearing its end or the bear market approaching relief. Currently, the measured approach by long-term holders suggests that the market retains some room for additional upward movement, provided selling pressure does not intensify.
However, it's important to note that Bitcoin has slipped by nearly 10% from its peak, and the current price is around $115,424, reflecting a 2.4% decline in the past 24 hours. Despite this, the data suggests that the rally has not yet reached conditions historically associated with a definitive top.
Market participants are advised to watch profit realization closely as it could set the tone for the next stage of the cycle. On-chain analytics firms frequently point to these long-term holder behaviours as leading indicators.
It's crucial to remember that while the LTH RPL metrics can provide valuable insights, they should not be the sole basis for investment decisions. As always, thorough research and understanding of market trends are essential for informed decision-making.
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