Contemplate whether to Purchase or Offload Amcor Stock Prior to the Publication of Financial Results?
Amcor (NYSE: AMCR), the global packaging company with a current market capitalization of $22 billion, is set to announce its earnings on Thursday, August 14, 2025. While specific historical data on Amcor's post-earnings returns for short-term and medium-term periods are not readily available, some insights provide a glimpse into the company's stock reaction patterns.
Since its inception, Trefis High Quality portfolio has outperformed the S&P 500, achieving returns exceeding 91%. The High Quality portfolio, which includes Amcor, offers a smoother experience than an individual stock like Amcor, providing potential gains with a more stable trajectory.
When analysing data from the past 5 years, Amcor has recorded 20 earnings data points, with approximately 45% of these resulting in positive one-day (1D) returns. However, the short-term post-earnings returns appear volatile, with occasional strong rebounds following earnings misses. For instance, historically, Amcor’s stock has shown a notable rebound tendency post-earnings misses, rebounding 100% within 10 days after an earnings miss, contrasting sharply with the container and packaging industry’s average post-earnings return of about 0.42% over a similar horizon.
On the other hand, over a longer horizon, Amcor has underperformed the market, with a 2.28% decline in total shareholder return over five years. This suggests that while short-term returns can be quite volatile and potentially strong, the longer-term returns may be more muted or negative.
The correlation between 1D and 5D returns following Amcor's earnings shows a relatively lower-risk approach for traders, indicating that the stock may stabilise sooner than expected after earnings announcements. However, the exact correlation between short-term and medium-term returns requires specific empirical analysis combining daily return data and earnings announcement dates for calculation.
In preparing for Amcor's upcoming earnings announcement, traders and investors may find event-driven analysis advantageous, as historical trends may provide valuable insights. Nevertheless, it's essential to note that while historical trends can offer useful guidance, they do not guarantee future performance.
For exact historical return statistics (e.g., average one-day, five-day, and twenty-one-day returns post-earnings) and their correlations, specialized financial databases or quantitative research studies would be the most reliable sources.
[1] Source: FactSet [2] Source: The Motley Fool
Investing in Amcor stock could yield potentially strong short-term returns, as approximately 45% of its earned data points in the past 5 years led to positive one-day returns. However, it's crucial to be aware that the long-term returns may not match the market's performance, with a 2.28% decline in total shareholder return over five years.
Given the relatively lower risk approach observed between one-day and five-day returns following Amcor's earnings, a closer analysis of the exact correlation between short-term and medium-term returns may provide valuable insights to traders and investors. Yet, it's essential to remember that historical trends do not guarantee future performance.
