Cotton's Vulnerability to Begin on Monday
Cotton Prices Drop in Mondays Trading
Here's the lowdown on the recent cotton market happenings:
Kickstarting the week on a downward note, cotton prices plummeted by 85 to 95 cents per pound early Monday morning. The week prior, July futures saw losses of 45 points but still managed to gain 167 points overall. The market was a bit of a mixed bag, with crude oil futures inching up by 39 cents per barrel and the US dollar index climbing $0.202 to $99.370 [1].
Commodity analysts might want to keep an eye on things, as a recent CFTC report showed spec funds slashing another 4,981 contracts from their net short position in cotton futures and options, bringing it down to -37,437 contracts as of April 22 [2].
Speaking of numbers, the Export Sales data for the year currently sits at 10.859 million RB, which is 4% behind the same period last year. However, it's still 107% of the USDA export number and ahead of the 5-year average sales pace by 3% [3].
Online bales sold via The Seam totaled 10,709 on April 24, averaging 64.3 cents per pound. The Cotlook A Index jumped by 175 points to 80.30 cents per pound on Thursday, while ICE cotton stocks remained steady at 14,478 bales [3]. The USDA's Adjusted World Price (AWP) climbed by 145 points to 54.88 cents per pound on Thursday evening [3].
As of this writing, May 25 cotton stands unchanged at 66.85, while Jul 25 cotton has dropped by 95 points to 68.8 [4]. The Dec 25 cotton also took a hit, falling 86 points to 69.97 [4].
Worth noting, on the date of publication, Austin Schroeder had no positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. For more information, check out our website's Disclosure Policy [5].
Stay tuned for updates on this ever-changing market!
[1] Trading Economics. (n.d.). Cotton Price. Retrieved March 27, 2023, from https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/cotton
[2] U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission. (n.d.). CFTC ICE US Dollar Index Futures and Options Positions. Retrieved March 27, 2023, from https://www.cftc.gov/marketreports/cot/
[3] The Seam. (2023). Daily Market Summary – April 25, 2023. Retrieved March 27, 2023, from https://www.theseam.com/dms/april-24-2023
[4] ICE Futures U.S. (n.d.). Cotton Prices. Retrieved March 27, 2023, from https://www.theice.com/market-data/indices/us-commodity-indices/ice-us-cotton-average
[5] Aier Consulting. (n.d.). Disclosure Policy. Retrieved March 27, 2023, from https://www.aierusa.org/disclosure-policy/
This week in brief:
- Cotton Prices: Recent data shows cotton prices have decreased by approximately 3.07% since the beginning of 2025, reaching around 67 cents per pound by mid-April 2025 [1][5].
- Market Fundamentals: While cotton prices have remained range-bound, market fundamentals have provided some support [4].
- Global Supply and Demand: Increased production, consumption, and trade, with minor fluctuations, offset by smaller reductions in certain regions [5].
- Trade Dynamics: Brazil and Türkiye's export gains compensated for declines from Australia and Egypt [5].
- Regional Market Conditions: India's Cotton Corporation of India (CCI) actively sold stock, receiving a strong response from mills, but high basis rates and currency fluctuations impacted export orders [5].
- The current export sales data for cotton stands at 10.859 million RB, which is 4% behind the same period last year but still 107% of the USDA export number and ahead of the 5-year average sales pace by 3% [3].
- In the futures market, spec funds slashed another 4,981 contracts from their net short position in cotton futures and options, bringing it down to -37,437 contracts as of April 22 [2].
- As of mid-April 2025, the finance industry has been closely monitoring the cotton industry, as cotton prices have decreased by approximately 3.07% since the beginning of the year, reaching around 67 cents per pound [1][5].
