Current Trends and Predictions for Phoenix Real Estate Market from 2025 to 2026
The Phoenix housing market is expected to experience a period of modest growth with balancing signs in the coming years. According to recent data, the city's population has surpassed the 4.7 million mark, reflecting a 1.27% increase from 2023.
However, the market has seen a -7.78% decrease since the previous month, with a current median sales price of $448,000 in June 2025. Homes are staying on the market for an average of 57 days, which is longer than earlier tight market periods.
Several factors contribute to this outlook. The rise in inventory is bringing more choices for buyers, decreasing bidding wars, and supporting a more balanced market. Experts predict slow but positive increases in home prices and sales volume, with moderate economic uncertainty contributing to cautious optimism.
Mortgage rates, which are expected to remain around 6.0-6.7% through 2025, slightly ease affordability but still remain relatively high, dampening demand somewhat.
In June 2025, Phoenix had 8,351 new listings, an active listings count (excluding UCB/CCBS) of 25,245, and 7,183 homes under contract. The average home value in the Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale area is currently around $456,017.
With these trends, buyers and sellers can expect a gradual recovery and stabilization rather than a rapid boom or crash, making Phoenix a steady market in 2025-2026.
| Metric | 2025 Forecast | 2026 Forecast | |---------------------------|-------------------------|------------------------| | New Home Sales Increase | +10% | +5% | | Median Home Price Growth | +3% | +4% | | Mortgage Rates | ~6.7% | ~6.0% | | Market Condition | Increasing inventory; balanced market | Continued modest growth, stable inventory |
Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist for the National Association of Realtors (NAR), has a more optimistic view for the U.S. housing market overall. He believes the Phoenix housing market has stabilized to a certain extent, and the risk of a massive crash is low.
Zillow's predictions for the Phoenix market suggest a slow, steady decline in home values, similar to other areas in Arizona like Lake Havasu and Tucson. As the market continues to evolve, it is essential for both buyers and sellers to be strategic, consider incentives, and negotiate wisely.
[1] Source: The Arizona Republic [2] Source: Zillow [3] Source: National Association of Realtors (NAR) [4] Source: The Cromford Report [5] Source: Freddie Mac
- Given the forecast, the Phoenix rental market may also witness a period of modest growth, offering an attractive investment opportunity for real estate entrepreneurs interested in personal finance.
- As analysts assess the Phoenix housing market, they are recommending due diligence in investment decisions, taking into account factors such as mortgage rates, market conditions, and inventory.
- With the growth in population and moderate economic uncertainty, the real estate business in Phoenix is expected to continue its growth trajectory, making it an exciting market for education and study in real estate analysis.
- Experts in finance suggest that buyers in the Phoenix market should approach the coming years with cautious optimism, considering the gradual recovery and stabilization, while still negotiating wisely to secure the best deals.
- Sellers in the Phoenix market, however, should be aware of the increasing inventory and slower sales volume, adjusting their pricing strategies accordingly to remain competitive and sell their properties faster.
- The Phoenix housing-market's steady growth, as forecast, makes it an appealing market for those seeking long-term investments, as the market's resilience and potential for slow but positive growthnourish the continued interest of investors.
- Given the anticipated growth, both new and experienced investors should educate themselves on the nuances of the Phoenix market and conduct thorough due diligence before making any investments, ensuring they fully understand the trends and prospects of the market.
