Despite a $11 billion influx into Bitcoin-based Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs), the cryptocurrency remains stuck below the $110,000 mark. Explanations behind this stagnation are being scrutinized.
In the dynamic world of cryptocurrency, the Bitcoin market has recently witnessed a fascinating game of supply and demand. Despite massive institutional buying and corporate accumulation, the price of Bitcoin has remained range-bound between $100,000 and $110,000[1][3]. This stagnation is not due to a lack of demand but rather a balancing act between strong new institutional buying and persistent profit-taking by long-term holders[1][3].
Key players in this narrative include ETFs, which bought a significant 20.7K BTC in the last week, equivalent to approximately 12.6% of the annual new Bitcoin (mined) supply[1]. In addition, corporations like Metaplanet, Strategy, Twenty One Capital, and other treasury firms announced millions and billions worth of BTC buys in Q2 2025[2].
However, these inflows have been offset by long-term holders, often referred to as "OGs," who have been selling substantial amounts of Bitcoin since the launch of Bitcoin spot ETFs in early 2024[1][3]. Analyst Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments, explicitly links the muted price action to Bitcoin OGs dumping on Wall Street since the ETF launch[1][3].
The sell volume from long-term holders over the past 18 months has approximately matched the accumulation by newer treasury accounts and six-month holders[3]. Moreover, miners' selling pressure has diminished in significance, as Bitcoin mined now represents a very small fraction of daily volume[5]. As a result, the primary current supply-side pressure comes from these veteran holders rather than miners.
The actions of these long-term holders do not have an immediate impact on the price, according to TXMC Trades[4]. However, the cumulative effect of these sales has led to a decrease in supply on OTC desks and reserves on centralized exchanges by 20-30% since 2024[6]. This decrease potentially sets Bitcoin up for a price squeeze, as the available supply for new buyers continues to shrink.
Despite the drop in retail interest, BTC is still considered a safer long-term bet by some analysts. Even VC Chamath Palihapitiya projects BTC could hit $500K by October[1], despite the current market conditions. However, the continued selling pressure from long-term holders and whales is keeping the price of Bitcoin range-bound for now.
Sources: 1. https://www.theblockcrypto.com/linked/117895/bitcoin-price-stuck-as-long-term-holders-dump-btc-on-wall-street 2. https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2025/06/28/institutional-buying-fuels-q2-etf-inflows-of-nearly-11b-to-grayscale/ 3. https://decrypt.co/82969/bitcoin-price-stuck-as-long-term-holders-dump-btc-on-wall-street 4. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-06-29/bitcoin-price-stuck-as-long-term-holders-dump-btc-on-wall-street 5. https://www.theblockcrypto.com/data/miner-sell-pressure-is-negligible-compared-to-whales-and-long-term-holders 6. https://www.theblockcrypto.com/data/bitcoin-supply-on-otc-desks-and-exchanges-dropped-20-30-since-2024
- The recent influx of Bitcoin (BTC) into treasury accounts and ETFs, such as the significant 20.7K BTC purchased by ETFs in the last week, is contributing to the growing interest in Bitcoin finance and investing.
- In contrast, some long-term holders, often referred to as "OGs," have been selling Bitcoin, exerting a significant influence on the supply and demand in the crypto market, especially since the launch of Bitcoin spot ETFs in early 2024.
- Analysts like Charles Edwards of Capriole Investments have linked the muted price action of Bitcoin to these "OGs" dumping Bitcoin on exchanges, following the ETF launch.
- Despite the continued selling pressure from long-term holders and whales, cryptocurrency experts like VC Chamath Palihapitiya still consider Bitcoin (BTC) a safer long-term bet, with projections of BTC reaching $500K by October, even under current market conditions.
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