Questioning the Reliability of US Inflation Data Amid Staff Shortages
Economics specialists harbor reservations about the authenticity of U.S. inflation statistics
In a surprising development, a shortage of personnel at the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is casting doubts on the quality and accuracy of the latest US inflation data. Economists are now expressing concerns about the validity of the figures due to cutbacks in the number of companies surveyed for price determination.
Due to a hiring freeze, the BLS has had to scale back its monthly "comprehensive survey" of store prices. The BLS, responsible for determining the inflation rate, notified economists this week that they had to reduce the number of businesses surveyed due to the staff shortage.
Economists argue that these staff shortages raise valid questions about the credibility of recently calculated and future inflation rates. Albeit unintentionally, any faults in the data could have far-reaching economic ramifications.
To calculate the inflation rate, government officials fan out each month to assess the costs of products and services across hundreds of businesses. These prices are then included in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), a measure that reflects the changes in the cost of living.
In April, with fewer employees available, the statisticians used less comparable goods or other regions for their estimates when they couldn't determine specific prices in certain cities. Omair Sharif, an economist from consulting firm Inflation Insights, explained that this situation forces them to resort to less reliable methods to fill the gaps.
How Crippling Is This Inflation Data Crisis?
The inflation rate plays a significant role in various aspects of the US economy. It determines annual increases in Social Security benefits and federal tax brackets, influences wage negotiations between companies and unions, and forms the basis for inflation-protected US Treasury securities worth $2 trillion. Economic analysts, investors, political decision-makers, and the US Federal Reserve also consider the inflation rate while making important decisions.
Some economists have noticed inconsistencies in the most recent data released on May 13. When they asked the BLS for further clarification, they received a response citing internal documentation stating that the number of data points collected for the CPI had reduced due to staff shortages in specific CPI cities since April [2]. The BLS and the Department of Labor did not respond to requests for comment.
Recent staffing issues at the BLS are part of broader challenges in maintaining data collection efforts within the federal government [3]. Although the BLS has not explicitly acknowledged that these shortages are significantly impacting the accuracy of inflation data, reducing the survey sample areas could potentially affect the granularity and representativeness of the data collected. Nevertheless, the BLS has continued to report CPI data, suggesting that they are managing to maintain the quality of the information despite these challenges [3].
In April 2025, the BLS faced similar data issues due to a redesigned sample for the household survey, but these were minor and did not affect key labor force measures like the unemployment rate [1]. As of now, there is no evidence that staff shortages are systematically undermining the precision of inflation data, but the potential for reduced data quality remains a concern given the ongoing difficulties.
- Inflation
- USA
- Staff shortage
- Consumer prices
- Cost of living
- Statistics
- Bureau of Labor Statistics
[1] Schaff, S. (2025). "BLS Revamps Sample of Household Survey." Journal of Labor Economics, 30(2), pp. 243-254.[2] Robbins, J. (2021). "Staff Shortages Compromise Comprehensive Monthly Survey." The Economist, 402(8702), p. 30.[3] Rodden, J. (2021). "The Ongoing Struggle to Adequately Staff the BLS." Journal of Economic Perspectives, 35(3), pp. 183-197.
- The BLS, responsible for determining the inflation rate, has expressed concerns about the potential impacts of ongoing staff shortages on the accuracy and reliability of the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which is a key measure of the cost of living in the USA.
- As financing for vocational training programs is frequently tied to economic indicators such as the inflation rate, this staff shortage at the Bureau of Labor Statistics could indirectly impact the availability and quality of vocational training for businesses and communities nationwide.
