Global Progress in Zero Emission Vehicles (ZEV) Transition: 2023 Overview of the Worldwide Shift
The transportation sector needs to take further action to ensure a sustainable and zero-emission future, as a new study reveals that while the gap between current ambition and climate goals has narrowed, it has not been fully closed.
The study, conducted by a collaboration of organizations including the International Energy Agency, International Transport Forum, Institute for Transportation and Development Policy, and the United Nations Environment Programme, focuses on the Zero-Emission Vehicle (ZEV) transition, covering 72 countries and accounting for 87% of global new vehicle sales.
The ZEV transition has the potential to reduce emissions by an additional 19 Gt CO2 if more countries, regions, and policies are included. However, the study suggests that achieving a global ZEV transition alone may not be sufficient to limit warming to 1.7°C or 1.5°C; additional actions are required.
Adopted policies and market developments have the potential to avoid around 17 Gt CO2 emissions from 2023 to 2050. If governments follow through on proposed policies and EV targets, an additional 25 Gt CO2 could be mitigated by 2050.
The study also estimates that international commitments could contribute another 11 Gt CO2 reduction, including region-specific mitigation estimates for signatories. Countries like Australia, Canada, the European Union, the United Kingdom, and the United States potentially contribute over half of the global emissions reduction in the ZEV transition scenario.
The updated study expands its regional scope to model policy developments beyond ZEV Transition Council (ZEVTC) markets and China. It now incorporates ZEV and electric vehicle (EV) targets in ASEAN countries, Latin American countries (excluding Mexico), Australia, New Zealand, South Asian countries (excluding India), and selected markets in the Middle East and Africa.
Recently adopted policies, primarily in the United States and the European Union, have led to an additional 17 Gt CO2 reduction by 2050 in the ZEV transition scenario. The study also identifies potential for CO2 emission reductions by 2050 through the implementation of existing policies and EV targets mainly in countries that have already enacted these policies; additional reduction potentials lie in proposals from further countries, regions, and policies that are not yet implemented or fully developed.
Access to more than 700 EV Market Insights is available for free at www.EVMarketsReports.com, the world's largest e-Mobility Reports and Outlooks database. Ongoing research is exploring additional actions to achieve a 1.7°C or 1.5°C limit, such as policies to reduce conventional vehicle fuel consumption, promote efficient transportation, and accelerate the adoption of ZEVs.
Despite progress, the study highlights that the gap between governments' collective ZEV ambition and a below-2°C pathway has reduced, but further action is needed to achieve more ambitious climate targets. The updated study has updated its policy cutoff from August 2021 to March 2023.
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