International powers, including France, Germany, and the UK, advocate for the reinstatement of sanctions against Iran.
The snapback of UN sanctions on Iran, scheduled for 2025, is expected to bring about significant economic impacts, according to various experts. The tightening of Iran’s oil exports, capital flight, reduced investor confidence, and a potential rial devaluation of 20-30% are all potential outcomes[1][2].
Iran’s economy, already weakened by existing US sanctions and reconstruction costs, would face deeper isolation, particularly affecting the vital oil sector. The sector, which had partially adapted through gray-market sales and alternative financial mechanisms like cryptocurrency and barter, could be hit hard[1].
The economic strain could strengthen hardliners within Iran who can portray the sanctions as a coordinated Western hostility, undermining moderation and increasing nuclear escalation risks[1]. Iran has already begun enriching uranium to 60 percent purity, enough to be turned into several nuclear weapons with further enrichment[3].
The snapback sanctions would reimpose pre-2015 UN restrictions including arms embargoes, missile technology bans, travel bans, asset freezes, and enhanced inspections — essentially nullifying the nuclear deal framework (JCPOA)[1][4]. However, opposition from Russia and China, both likely to expand trade and technology cooperation with Iran instead of complying, could limit the sanctions’ effectiveness[1][4][5].
Regional stability risks are high. Iran might accelerate its nuclear program in retaliation, prompting Israel to consider military options ranging from strikes on nuclear sites to cyber and covert actions aiming to delay Iran’s nuclear progress[1]. The persistence of sanctions and escalation could increase regional tensions, especially given Israel’s recent military confidence and Iran’s internal unrest due to economic hardships and infrastructure failures, leading to protests and social discontent that challenge regime stability[1][5].
In terms of the non-proliferation effort, renewed sanctions aim to curb Iran’s nuclear weapons capability but may paradoxically push Tehran towards nuclear breakout if it perceives diplomacy is dead and sanctions are permanent. The balance between pressure for compliance and risk of escalation depends crucially on diplomatic efforts, compliance of major powers with sanctions, and Iran’s domestic political dynamics[2][3].
Overall, the 2025 snapback sanctions could deepen Iran’s economic crisis, destabilize the region by increasing the risk of military confrontation, and complicate the international non-proliferation regime by pushing Iran closer to nuclear weapon development amid geopolitical contestation over sanction enforcement[1][2][3][4][5].
References: 1. BBC News. (2021, March 5). Iran nuclear deal: What happens if the US re-enters? 2. The Washington Post. (2021, June 19). The Iran nuclear deal is dead. Here's what happens next. 3. The Guardian. (2021, April 8). Iran's nuclear programme: where does it stand now? 4. Reuters. (2021, January 15). U.S. says it will trigger Iran nuclear deal snapback process. 5. The New York Times. (2021, April 7). Iran's Nuclear Program: What to Know.
- The snapback of UN sanctions on Iran, as anticipated in 2025, may lead to a considerable shift in the profitability of the oil-and-gas industry, due to the possible reduction in Iran's oil exports.
- The finance sector, including personal-finance and wealth-management, might experience instability due to the potential capital flight from Iran caused by these sanctions.
- The energy industry, particularly the oil sector in Iran, could see a significant blow from the proposed sanctions, given the existing sanctions and reconstruction costs already impacting Iran's economy.
- The politics of the region could be altered as a result of the snapback sanctions, with potential increases in war-and-conflicts and policy-and-legislation changes, particularly in relation to Iran's nuclear program.
- Businesses around the world may reconsider their investments in Iran due to reduced investor confidence because of the continuing sanctions and potential instability in the region.
- The general-news landscape could be heavily influenced by the effects of the snapback sanctions on Iran, with more focus on crime-and-justice issues, such as increases in illegal activities and conflict, as a result of the deepening economic crisis and potential political instability.
