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BASF stock experienced a strong price increase at the start of the new trading week, breaking through the previous 3-month high. However, after a false breakout, the forecast and analyst consensus suggest a cautious outlook for BASF stock, recommending a hold or accumulate position rather than a buy.
The predicted fair opening price around late July to early August 2025 remains close to current levels (€42.82 to €45.55), with limited expected intra-day volatility and no strong buy signals.
This cautious stance is supported by BASF's weaker first-half earnings per share (€0.99 in H1 2025 vs. €2.01 prior-year), reflecting ongoing margin pressures and macroeconomic uncertainties. The company's return on equity (ROE) was low at about 1.5%, indicating modest profitability relative to shareholder equity.
Revenue declined 2.1% in Q2 2025, though free cash flow improved, suggesting operational resilience despite weaker demand conditions. Analysts have moderately positive views with some upside potential but maintain neutral to hold ratings due to the uncertain environment.
BASF’s diversified portfolio across chemicals, materials, and agricultural solutions helps mitigate risks, but pressure on margins and slower market growth limit upside.
In summary, following the false breakout, BASF stock is expected to trade in a range without a strong directional breakout, supported by mixed recent financials and cautious analyst recommendations that favor holding while awaiting clearer developments from upcoming earnings and macroeconomic trends.
DZ Bank maintains its "Buy" rating for BASF shares, with a target price of 56.00 euros. Deutsche Bank sees the fair value of BASF shares around 52.00 euros. The support level for BASF stock is around 41.50 euros. If BASF stock can sustainably overcome the 45.70 euro mark, the path upwards would be clear, as the next major resistance level is at 53.00 euros.
It's worth noting that the publisher Boersenmedien AG, which owns DER AKTIONÄR, has positions in BASF that could benefit from potential price developments. Bernd Foertsch, majority shareholder and CEO of the publisher Boersenmedien AG, holds positions in BASF.
Virginie Boucher-Ferte, an analyst at Deutsche Bank, praised the strong results of BASF's Agricultural Solutions and Surface Technologies divisions. Spengler also mentioned the planned sale of the Surface Tech division by the end of 2026 and a potential IPO of Agricultural Solutions after 2028.
DER AKTIONÄR maintains a long-term positive assessment of BASF stock and suggests a stop-loss at 31.00 euros for BASF shares. BASF remains an appealing dividend stock according to DER AKTIONÄR.
[1] Source: Financial Times [2] Source: Reuters [3] Source: Barron's [4] Source: Yahoo Finance [5] Source: MarketWatch
Investors should exercise caution when considering investments in BASF stock, as the predicted fair opening price for late July to early August 2025 remains close to current levels and does not indicate strong buy signals. The company's weak first-half earnings per share, low return on equity, and revenue decline in Q2 2025 contribute to this cautious outlook.
Despite the diversified portfolio of BASF, ongoing margin pressures and slower market growth limit upside potential for the stock. Financial analysts have moderately positive views but maintain neutral to hold ratings due to the uncertain environment.
