Kazakhstan's Economy: Anticipated Developments and Trends Ahead
The National Bank of Kazakhstan has released the findings of its recent macroeconomic survey amongst experts, as detailed on our platform. The survey encompassed a range of factors, including the price of Brent oil, Kazakhstan's economic growth, inflation, the base rate, export and import of goods and services, and the tenge exchange rate.
Revised Oil Price and Economic Growth Forecasts
Participants in the survey have adjusted their assumptions concerning oil prices for the upcoming years, according to the National Bank's statement. In 2025, the median estimate for the price of Brent oil is anticipated to be $69.3 per barrel, a decrease from the initial $75.0 projection. For 2026 and 2027, expectations remain unchanged at $66.0 and $66.2 per barrel, respectively.
Central to these changes, forecasts for Kazakhstan's economic growth have also been revised upwards for 2025, rising from a previous estimation of 4.7% to now predict 5.0%. However, projections for 2026 and 2027 remain steady at 4.5% and 4.3%, respectively.
Inflation and Base Rate Expectations
Inflation forecasts have seen a continuous upward trend, with expectations for 2025 increased from 10.6% to 10.7%, while predictions for 2026 have risen from 9.0% to 9.4%, and for 2027 from 6.1% to 6.8%.
Given these revised inflation expectations, experts have also updated their forecasts for the base rate. Based on the National Bank's statement, median values for forecasts at the end of 2025 have been raised from 15.9% to 16.3%, for 2026 from 14.3% to 14.5%, and for 2027 from 11.5% to 12.0%.
The macroeconomic survey involved 14 organizations specializing in the analysis and forecasting of macroeconomic indicators within Kazakhstan, including professional market participants, research institutions, international organizations, and rating agencies. It's important to note that the survey does not contain forecasts made by the National Bank itself. Instead, it offers an independent overview of professional market participants' opinions, assessments, and expectations regarding the state of the Kazakhstani and global markets.
In April, annual inflation in Kazakhstan accelerated to 10.7%, up from 10% in March, with inflation rates recorded in 18 regions of the country, with the highest rate in Nur-Sultan standing at 13.8%.
Enrichment Data Integration
While the enrichment data offers a broader context for the Kazakhstani economy, it does not contain specific, up-to-date forecasts associated with the National Bank's survey. Nonetheless, it is useful to note that global economic uncertainty and OPEC+ production constraints may pose risks to Kazakhstan's economic growth.
Based on the revisions in participants' assumptions, the median estimate for Brent oil price in 2025 is expected to be $69.3 per barrel, which falls within the finance industry.
Consequently, Kazakhstan's economic growth prediction for 2025 has been revised upwards to 5.0%, indicating a potential impact on the industry and finance sectors.
