Predicting Tapestry's Stock Performance after Q4 Results: Will a 74% Success Rate Persist?
Tapestry, the luxury fashion group behind brands like Coach and Kate Spade, has had a stellar year, leading to increased forecasts for revenue, earnings per share (EPS), and cash flow for the full year. According to analysts, earnings of $1.02 per share on $1.68 billion in revenue are expected for Tapestry when it announces its fiscal fourth-quarter earnings on Thursday, August 14, 2025.
This would represent a 11% increase year-over-year in adjusted earnings and a 6% rise in sales compared to last year's figures. Historically, TPR shares have climbed 74% of the time following earnings releases, with a standard one-day increase of 4.0%.
However, it's worth noting that the correlation between one-day (1D) and five-day (5D) returns for TPR, based on a 5-year and a more recent 3-year history, is not provided in the available data. If the correlation between 1D and 5D returns is highest, a trader can position themselves "long" for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive.
The median of the 14 positive returns for TPR is 4.0%, while the median of the 5 negative returns is -3.1%. Over the past 3 years, the percentage of positive 1D returns for TPR increases to 82%.
For those seeking upside with less volatility, the Trefis High Quality portfolio offers an alternative. This portfolio has outperformed the S&P 500 and delivered returns above 91% since its inception. The Trefis RV strategy has also outperformed its all-cap stocks benchmark, yielding strong returns for investors.
It's important to understand that the average percentage increase in TPR stock price one day after earnings release is not explicitly provided in the available data. However, historical backtest analyses indicate that TPR has shown a strong positive price reaction following earnings beats, with an impressive 90.91% win rate at 3 and 10 days post-earnings and average returns of about 4.58% at 3 days post-earnings.
Sector-wide, the Textiles, Apparel & Luxury Goods sector shows muted price responses to earnings beats, indicating Tapestry’s strong historical pattern is somewhat unusual in its industry.
In conclusion, while the typical price increase 1 day after earnings for TPR is not directly documented in the search results, historical patterns indicate that the stock generally gains following positive earnings surprises, with an average multi-day return of around 4.58% by day 3, implying a probable positive 1-day reaction when earnings beat expectations. For a precise average 1-day percentage increase, detailed intraday or next-day price change data by earnings date would be required, which is not explicitly available in the provided search results.
For traders focused on events, recognizing TPR's historical reaction patterns might provide an advantage. Occasionally, the performance of peers can affect the reaction of stocks after earnings are announced.
- Investors considering Tapestry stock might find it profitable to monitor the company's fiscal fourth-quarter earnings announcement on August 14, 2025, as historical patterns indicate a possible 4.58% increase in the stock price one day after earnings if they beat expectations.
- Considering the textiles, apparel, and luxury goods sector's muted price responses to earnings beats, Tapestry's strong historical pattern of gaining after positive earnings surprises seems somewhat unusual in the industry, making it an interesting focus for event-driven traders.
