A spat heats up
Prediction market platform Polymarket collaborates with X, escalating as Trump's dispute with Musk moves into wagers and bets.
The growing rift between US President Donald Trump and tech mogul Elon Musk has found its way into the prediction market sector, with Musk aligning with Polymarket over Donald Trump Jr's Kalshi.
Junior Trump is a Kalshi strategic advisor, and the presidency supports the firm's board member Brian Quintenz to become the next head of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
Labeled as the internet's "two truth-seeking apps"
Musk's recent move to solidify Polymarket as the Official Prediction Market Provider of his social media platform X seems calculated. Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan announced the collaboration on X, emphasizing the partnership will amplify the power of the "two truth-seeking apps".
The tension was further fueled when Kalshi, Polymarket's New York-based competitor, was set to partner with X, even announcing the partnership only to retract its statement shortly after.
Treading on Thin Ice?
The acrimony between Trump and Musk has been making headlines worldwide in the past week, as the pair traded threats and insults on social media. Is the world's wealthiest man's public snub of Kalshi and hostile behavior towards Trump a recipe for danger for Polymarket?
With Quintenz nominated for the CFTC head position and Polymarket facing legal challenges in the United States, where it is banned, the firm is taking a significant risk by pairing up with Musk.
In a press release, Coplan's firm revealed that Polymarket predictions will be combined with X data, providing live insights and real-time annotations explaining market fluctuations. Effectively, X users will be able to place Polymarket bets directly from the platform, marking a first in the prediction market realm.
Kalshi Rebounds
Rather than nursing its wounds after the X snub, Kalshi has ventured into the political fray itself, offering markets on the Trump-Musk rift. These include Trump Unfollowing Musk, Trump Suing Elon in 2025, and the United States Banning X.
Operating legally across all 50 U.S. states, Kalshi emerged victorious after battling state regulators in Nevada and New Jersey. Despite the roadblocks, the prediction market provider successfully secured the CFTC's support for its federal right to offer such markets.
- The tension between Elon Musk and Donald Trump, evident in their public spat, may also impact the prediction market sector, as Musk's alignment with Polymarket could potentially jeopardize the firm's collaboration with influential figures like Donald Trump Jr and the CFTC head nominee, Brian Quintenz.
- In response to Polymarket's partnership with Elon Musk, Kalshi, its New York-based competitor, has countered by offering markets on the Trump-Musk rift, demonstrating an aggressive stance in the competitive world of technology-driven finance and sports prediction markets.
