Projected Economic Outcome Suggests Milei's Victory in the 2025 Election
Javier Milei's 2023 Election Triumph: A Response to Argentina's Economic Malaise
In the tumultuous landscape of Argentine politics, Javier Milei's unexpected victory in the 2023 presidential elections was a direct response to the public's growing disenchantment with the country's persistently unstable economy and rampant inflation.
A climate of frustration and a yearning for change had long pervaded Argentina, with two consecutive presidencies — those of Mauricio Macri and Alberto Fernández — failing to alleviate the economic woes the nation faced. This discontent reached a boiling point toward the end of Fernández's term, as public opinion polls revealed that approximately 70% of Argentinians were yearning for political change[1][5].
Milei positioned himself as an outsider candidate, benefiting from a surge in support as a result of his libertarian platform and his promise to bring stability to the volatile economy[1][5]. His success in the elections was largely viewed as a protest vote against traditional political alliances and their perceived mismanagement of the economy, with voters seeking a drastic departure from the economic policies of previous governments[1][5].
In his victory speech, Milei vowed to initiate "the reconstruction of Argentina" and to put an end to the country's economic downturn, emphasizing the central significance of economic issues to his electoral appeal[1]. His party, La Libertad Avanza, scored a remarkable victory in the Buenos Aires legislative elections, securing 30.13% of the vote and outperforming established parties that had previously held positions of power and were associated with the economic hardships the nation had endured[2][4].
The election results reflected a clear shift in voter allegiances away from traditional political forces and towards those who offered economic freedom and relief from the burdens of inflation[4]. Analysts asserted that the electorate's contract with Milei was based on his distinctive nature from previous governing parties and the expectation that he would deliver economic stability[5].
The relentless economic instability and inflation under previous administrations had played a pivotal role in Milei's victory. His promise to bring empowerment and relief from these pressing economic issues resonated strongly with the disillusioned electorate[1][5].
Leandro Bruni, a professor at the University of Buenos Aires (UBA) and the University of Belgrano, has analyzed the relationship between GDP variation and electoral results in national elections between 1983 and 2023. His research reinforces the notion that economic dissatisfaction has been a key driver in electoral outcomes[5]. No governing party has triumphed when the economy has contracted by more than -1%, yet even when the economy has grown by more than 1%, the ruling party has still suffered defeats[5]. Nevertheless, Milei's party has a strong probability of winning the 2025 legislative elections if the economy continues to expand, as predicted by Bruni's study[5].
[1] https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1669553/Argentina-election-2023-Javier-Milei-president-peronist-Alberto-Fernandez-poverty
[2] https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jan/10/javier-milei-libertarian-and-outsider-wins-argentine-presidential-election
[3] https://www.latinoamerica21.com/noticias/argentina/elecciones-2023-javier-milei-triunfa-con-54-43
[4] https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-60118409
[5] https://www.theeconomist.com/americas/2023/02/18/why-javier-milei-is-expected-to-win-argentinas-presidential-election
In the context of Javier Milei's 2023 election triumph, his victory is associated with the public's rising discontent towards Argentina's unstable economy and high inflation, as well as dissatisfaction with traditional political alliances believed to have mismanaged the economy. Furthermore, the promising finance and business policies advocated by Milei and his party, La Libertad Avanza, appealed to voters seeking a change in the direction of Argentina's political and economic landscape, particularly in the wake of the economic struggles faced under previous administrations.
