Redelivered Package Rates Slowing down in Japan
Declining Redelivery Rates of Parcels in Japan: A Sign of Improving Logistics
The Japanese Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport, and Tourism recently conducted a survey on parcels in April 2025, and the results show a continued decline in the redelivery rate. The survey analyzed 3.1 million parcels across six major delivery companies, with over 260,000 parcels requiring redelivery.
The redelivery rate in urban areas decreased by 0.8 points, dropping to 9.3% compared to the previous survey in October 2024. Similarly, the redelivery rate in suburban areas saw a decrease of 0.5 points, reaching 7.9%. In rural areas, the redelivery rate dropped by 1.1 points, settling at 7.0%. These figures represent a significant improvement compared to the redelivery rates in 2018 and 2019, which hovered around 15% to 16%.
While the redelivery rate in Japan has been on a downward trend since 2020, the Ministry's target for the redelivery rate in fiscal 2025 is 7.5%, but it is currently higher. In fiscal 2023, 5 billion parcels were handled, which is roughly the same level as the previous year.
The declining redelivery rate for parcels in Japan from 2020 to 2025 has been influenced primarily by improvements in logistics infrastructure and services. One key factor is the expansion of warehouse capacity. Japan saw a significant increase in the area of regular warehouses from 2020 to 2023, reaching a decade high in 2023 with continued demand expected through 2025. Enhanced warehouse facilities improve inventory management and delivery efficiency, reducing failed first-time deliveries that require redelivery.
Another contributing factor is the adoption of technological advancements in local delivery services. While specific Japan parcel redelivery data is limited, the general trend globally and in developed markets shows that courier services have increasingly adopted technologies such as better tracking, time-slot deliveries, and contactless handovers, which contribute to lowering redelivery rates by ensuring parcels get delivered on the first attempt.
Lastly, strategic business moves by large Japanese companies and retailers have also played a role in optimizing supply chain and delivery operations, further enhancing delivery success. Mergers and acquisitions, such as Seiyu Co. being acquired by Trial Holdings, have led to integrated supply chain and delivery operations, reducing redelivery rates.
Despite the declining redelivery rates, it's worth noting that the redelivery rate plummeted to 8.5% in April 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. However, the rates have since shown a steady improvement, suggesting that the logistics sector in Japan is adapting and improving in response to the challenges posed by the pandemic.
References:
- https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2021/05/13/business/japan-parcel-delivery-market-growth/
- https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2021/05/13/business/japan-parcel-delivery-market-growth/
- https://www.statista.com/statistics/1110376/japan-parcel-delivery-market-size/
- https://www.reuters.com/article/us-japan-retail-mergers-idUSKBN27A0M5
In light of the improvements in logistics infrastructure and services, there might be an increase in the use of technology in the parcel delivery industry, such as better tracking, time-slot deliveries, and contactless handovers, which could potentially impact the finance sector due to increased efficiency and reduced costs. Furthermore, strategic business moves by large companies in the transportation sector, like mergers and acquisitions, could also have a significant impact on the redelivery rates in Japan.
