Reduction of mortgage loans by 40% in Tomsk region at the start of 2025
A Sharp Drop in Mortgage Loans in Tomsk: What's Behind This Trend?
People living in Tomsk region have seen a significant decrease in mortgage loans in Q1 2025, with only 844 loans approved compared to 1925 in the same period last year, according to data from the United Credit Bureau (OKB).
Previously, it was reported that the majority of mortgage loans were taking place on the primary market (accounting for 70-80% in Tomsk), where favorable mortgage programs with low interest rates were prevalent. In 2024, the government and banks tightened the conditions for these programs, including raising the initial down payment and increasing interest rates. As of now, the key interest rate of the Central Bank of Russia has reached a record 21%.
"In Q1 2025, banks granted mortgage loans to residents of Tomsk region totaling 3.38 billion rubles for 844 loans. For comparison: in Q1 2024, residents of the region obtained 1925 mortgage loans for a total of 7.33 billion rubles", explained the OKB representative to RIA Tomsk.
According to OKB data, nearly 70% of mortgage loans issued in February and March 2025 were for government-supported programs.
Looking back on 2024:
Prices of New Housing in Tomsk Increase Despite Declining Sales
As Elena Petrochenko, managing director of Tomsk branch of Bank of Russia, explains, the number of mortgage loans issued in 2024 was comparable to that in 2022: about 8,600 loans in 2024 and approximately 9,700 loans in 2022.
By her account, as of early 2025, the mortgage portfolio stood at 115.5 billion rubles, marking a 2.7% increase compared to 2023 and a 31.6% rise from 2022. Petrochenko noted that despite a 37.4% drop in the number of loans and a 36% decline in their total volume compared to 2023 figures, it's not accurate to label this as a major failure.
The average loan term has also increased, reaching 25 years (+ six months compared to 2023 and +2.4 years compared to 2022). What's more, the default rate in Tomsk is lower than the national average. "As of 2024 in Tomsk, the default rate on mortgage loans was still relatively low and amounted to 0.3%, while the national average was 0.5%", pointed out Petrochenko.
Several factors might contribute to this decrease in mortgage loans in Tomsk. While specific local data is unavailable, theories include:
Economic and Geopolitical Factors- Sanctions pressure on Russia's financial sector might have led to stricter lending practices or reduced liquidity.- The central bank's interest rate environment may have suppressed loan demand.- Regional development projects, such as the EGSS gas pipeline expansion, could divert funding from consumer lending to industrial projects.
Local Market Dynamics- Housing supply constraints: Reduced construction activity or inventory shortages could limit mortgage opportunities.- Population migration: Outmigration trends might decrease housing demand.- Banking sector adjustments: Local branches may have revised risk assessments or lending criteria.
- In Q1 2025, the main industry of financing, the mortgage industry in Tomsk, experienced a significant decrease, with only 844 loans approved, which is less than half of the 1925 loans approved in Q1 2024.
- The decline in mortgage loans can be partially attributed to the tightened conditions for government-supported mortgage programs, with nearly 70% of loans issued in February and March 2025 being for these programs.
- Despite the decrease in mortgage loans, the finance sector in Tomsk has shown resilience, with the mortgage portfolio standing at 115.5 billion rubles as of early 2025, marking a 31.6% rise from 2022.
- Looking ahead, investors in the real-estate sector may need to consider the impact of factors such as sanctions, the central bank's interest rate environment, regional development projects, local market dynamics, and changes in lending criteria by local banks.
