Rising Momentum for Alternative Cryptocurrencies Signaled by Bitcoin Spread Oscillator - Is this an Indication for Altcoin Season Beginning?
Article Rewrite
The crypto world is buzzing as Bitcoin takes a decisive stand at a crucial price point, sparking anticipation for what's next. after a series of bullish price actions, Bitcoin has stationed itself above $103K, preparing for an epic showdown. Investors are keeping a close eye on Bitcoin's moves, eager to see if it'll breach all-time highs or face another rejection – either decision could set off a chain reaction in the altcoin arena.
It's all about balance: Bitcoin Dominance plummeting as USDT inflow of $6B ignites the altcoin revolution. Analysts are sounding the alarm for an incoming altseason, a period when capital pours into alternative cryptocurrencies, leaving Bitcoin in the dust. According to recently unveiled insights from CryptoQuant, the Bitcoin Market Performance & Altcoin Spread value stands at 38%. This intricate metric measures the momentum and performance of key assets like Ethereum and Solana relative to Bitcoin. A value of 50% historically signifies the initiation of an altseason. With only 12 percentage points separating the current state and the threshold, the market is heating up.
This critical juncture could chart the course for the market's trajectory in the upcoming weeks. If Bitcoin maintains its ground and altcoins continue to shine, it would mark a stunning shift in investment patterns – one that could set the tone for the cycle's remainder. For now, all eyes are firmly locked on the 50% mark.
Altcoin Oscillator Gaining Momentum as Bitcoin Nears ATH
Bitcoin has surged over 12% in the past week and has soared more than 40% since its April 9th low, underpinning a sustained five-week uptrend that mirrors increasing investor confidence. This rebirth signifies a notable change in market sentiment after months of turmoil and uncertainty. With BTC now trading dangerously close to its all-time high near $109K, the bulls are in control – but the true test lies ahead.
The coming weeks are anticipated to be pivotal. Some analysts forecast a clear breakout above the previous high, which would seal the deal for the broader bull cycle. Others argue that current levels may trigger profit-taking and potential short-term corrections. Either way, momentum remains strong, and Bitcoin must hold firm above $100K to be victorious.
The Upcoming Bitcoin Kingmaker:## Top Analyst Axel Adler pointedly discusses the Bitcoin Market Performance & Altcoin Spread indicator
As Bitcoin dances with destiny, investors are looking for guidance from seasoned experts. Enter Axel Adler, who’s focusing on the Bitcoin Market Performance & Altcoin Spread oscillator – a composite metric that tracks altcoin performance relative to Bitcoin. According to Adler, this innovative metric has recently spiked to 38%. Historically, once the 30-day moving average of the oscillator crosses 50%, it indicates the start of an altseason.
With just 12 percentage points remaining before reaching the crucial juncture, the transfer of capital from Bitcoin to altcoins could be imminent. Green dots on the oscillator highlight these significant historical milestones. If this trend takes hold and altcoins kick into high gear, it would confirm a broader risk-on environment within crypto.
Data Shows Faith in Bitcoin – The US-China Trade Agreement Fuels Rally## Bitcoin Weekly Analysis: Resistance Steadfast for Now
The weekly chart for Bitcoin shows the price consolidating just below the all-time high area after failing to break free completely. BTC peaked at $105,706 before retrenching and closing the weekly candle around $103,850. This level serves as a critical resistance zone, drawing on historical significance from January's peak, and functioning as a temporary roadblock for any further uptrend.
Despite the rejection at these highs, the structure remains bullish. BTC hovers comfortably above the psychological $100,000 barrier and key moving averages. The 200-week SMA lurks far below, at $47,375, while the 200-week EMA lies at $52,457 – both suggesting a robust long-term uptrend.
Volume over recent weeks attests to a rise in participation, indicating growing enthusiasm as Bitcoin charts a path to price discovery. The critical question now is whether the bulls can regain the $105K level on a weekly closing basis, paving the way for a breakout toward $109K and beyond.
Bitcoin Aims for Uncharted Territory, Smashes $90K-$94K Range With Ease – DetailsIf the price falters and falls below $100K in the coming sessions, a deeper dive could test lower support zones around $96K-$94K. However, the momentum continues to be rosy, and the weekly close above $103K keeps the rally thriving.
Image courtesy of Dall-E, chart courtesy of TradingView
Editorial ProcessHere’s a glimpse into the past altcoin performance during previous altseasons:
- 2017-2018 Altseason:
- Bitcoin Dominance Decline: Bitcoin’s dominance declined from 86.3% in late 2017 to 38.69% at the start of 2018. This decline was largely due to the surge in the initial coin offering (ICO) market, which gave birth to numerous blockchain projects and tokens.
- Altcoin Performance: During this period, many altcoins experienced significant growth, outpacing Bitcoin as investors sought opportunities beyond the major cryptocurrency. This phase saw the emergence of various tokens, including those created by successful ICOs.
- 2020-2021 Altseason:
- Bitcoin Dominance Decline: Bitcoin’s market dominance dropped from 70% to approximately 38% during this period. The overall cryptocurrency market capitalization more than doubled from about 30% to 62% of the global market[5].
- Altcoin Performance: This altseason was fueled by the emergence of meme coins like Dogecoin and Shiba Inu, as well as the growth of non-fungible tokens (NFTs) and decentralized applications (dApps). The altcoin season index peaked at 98 on April 16, 2021, indicating strong altcoin performance compared to Bitcoin[5].
Three key elements drive altcoin seasons:- Bitcoin Dominance: A decline in Bitcoin's market share often signals an altcoin season. When Bitcoin's dominance decreases, investors tend to diversify into altcoins.- Market Sentiment: Economic and social factors, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, can impact investor behavior, leading to increased interest in altcoins.- Innovation and Adoption: New technologies or trends, like NFTs and dApps, can stimulate altcoin markets by offering additional investment opportunities.
Tools such as the Altcoin Season Index and market capitalization and dominance analysis can help investors spot altcoin seasons.
- The upcoming surge in altcoins might be instigated by the ongoing shift in investor interest, as the Bitcoin Market Performance & Altcoin Spread value has climbed to 38%, hinting at a potential altseason.
- If Bitcoin maintains its current trajectory and altcoins continue to gain momentum, it could lead to a significant shift in investment patterns, potentially marking the beginning of an extended altcoin season.
