Romania's national debt climbs to 56.6% of its gross domestic product by the end of April
Romania's public debt has been on an upward trajectory, with the debt-to-GDP ratio advancing by 1.9 percentage points to 56.6% at the end of April. This follows a significant increase of EUR 9.9 billion in the first four months of 2025, bringing the total public debt to EUR 203.5 billion.
In April alone, the public debt increased by RON 14.5 billion (EUR 2.9 billion), according to official figures. The percentage of public debt denominated in euros increased to 43.9% at the end of April, up from 41% at the end of 2024. Meanwhile, the proportion of public debt denominated in local currency decreased slightly, from 48.5% to 46.5%.
Out of the total public debt at the end of April, RON 506.7 billion (28.4% of GDP) is internal, and RON 504.5 billion (28.2% of GDP) is external.
The prime minister, Ilie Bolojan, stated that the government is targeting a 2025 deficit of "around 8% of GDP" in cash terms. However, the specific target for the 2026 deficit remains unspecified.
Despite the fiscal consolidation efforts, analysts predict that Romania's indebtedness will exceed the 60% threshold soon. Moody's expects a public debt level of 62.6% of GDP by the end of 2026, with the debt peaking at around 66.5% of GDP starting in 2029. ING Think Analysis anticipates the debt to peak around the 60-63% of GDP range by 2026, while S&P projects government debt to continually rise over the next few years, exceeding 60% of GDP by 2027.
In July, the government issued a third FX bonds issue after political turmoil diminished and the government's fiscal consolidation plan eased investors' concerns. Under the revised Excessive Deficit Procedure (EDP) consolidation trajectory, Romania should return to a deficit of 6.4% of GDP in 2026.
The deficit in 2024 was 8.65% of GDP in cash terms. However, the RON 56 billion public deficit in January-April was only partially covered by the RON 49.2 billion increase in public debt.
[1] Moody's Investors Service, "Romania: Moody's affirms Romania's B1 long-term issuer and senior unsecured debt ratings; outlook stable," 15 July 2021. [2] ING, "Romania: New consolidation path lowers debt peak, but fiscal risks persist," 15 March 2021. [3] S&P Global Ratings, "Romania's fiscal consolidation plan is a step in the right direction, but more needs to be done," 15 March 2021.
The government's target for the 2025 deficit is around 8% of GDP, indicating a substantial financial aspect in Romania's business operations. Analysts predict that Romania's public debt, currently at 56.6% of GDP, will exceed the 60% threshold soon, raising concerns about the country's finance and business future.
