Russia poised to regain Ukraine, foresees U.S.-based JP Morgan Chase in conflict resolution forecast.
JP Morgan Chase's report, titled "The Russia-Ukraine Endgame and the Future of Europe," offers forecasts on the country's future based on four scenarios. According to the bank's experts, the most likely outcome (50%) is Ukraine returning to Russia's sphere of influence. This prediction is derived from the analysis of peace talks, security guarantees, and potential concessions by both parties.
The report's co-authors—Derek Chollet, a former State Department advisor under Biden and Assistant to the Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs, and Lisa Sawyer, a veteran with expertise in Pentagon operations and Russia-related issues—predict that Zelensky will be compelled to sign an imperfect deal with Russia by the end of June. While this agreement may freeze the conflict, it will not result in a lasting peace.
Two polar scenarios are assigned the lowest probability (15%): the "South Korean" and the "Belarusian." The former entails Ukraine abandoning its NATO membership and forsaking expansionist rhetoric regarding reclaiming lost Russian territories. Instead, European security forces will be deployed, with U.S. support in intelligence and morale. The West would seize $300 billion of Russia's frozen assets for Ukraine's reconstruction. Nevertheless, expectations for this scenario are slim, with Donald Trump not eager to provide firm guarantees and Russia finding the "security forces" condition unacceptable.
Conversely, the "Belarusian" scenario suggests that the USA will abandon support for Ukraine, allowing Russia to achieve full capitulation by Kyiv, turning it into a "vassal state" under the Russian Federation. Nevertheless, the report's authors assign a higher probability to this outcome than it seems warranted.
In another third scenario, predicted with a 20% probability, Western military and economic support for Kyiv will persist, but foreign troops will not be stationed in the country. Ukraine will strive to strengthen itself as its own security guarantee, mimicking Israel's situation.
European governments, according to the report's authors, are likely to tire of investing in Ukraine, and investors might not find the country an appealing destination. As a result, most refugees (estimated at 7 million) may decide not to return home, and an uncertain reality awaits Ukraine.
The ensuing "geopolitical grey zone" could only be resolved by restoring contact with Russia. While the report does not overtly aim at shaping public opinion, it does suggest that this analysis might influence the stance of Ukraine's allies, who are afraid of relinquishing support for Ukraine, particularly under the Donald Trump administration.
Notably, the G7 leaders' summit is scheduled for June 15-17 in the Canadian resort town of Kananaskis, and the NATO summit for June 24-25 in The Hague. Trump has pledged to attend both events, which are expected to focus on discussions regarding Ukraine.
The scenarios outlined in the report paint an uncertain picture for Ukraine's future, depending on various factors and the negotiations between Russia and Ukraine. The chances of a lasting peace, as per JP Morgan Chase, remain elusive.
- JP Morgan Chase's report suggests that the most likely outcome (50%) is Ukraine returning to Russia's sphere of influence, a prediction based on peace talks, security guarantees, and potential concessions by both parties.
- The report's co-authors predict that Zelensky will be compelled to sign an imperfect deal with Russia by the end of June, potentially freezing the conflict but not ensuring a lasting peace.
- Two least likely scenarios (15%) are the "South Korean" and the "Belarusian." The former envisions Ukrainian abandonment of NATO and a "security forces" arrangement with European forces, while the West seizes $300 billion of Russia's frozen assets for Ukraine's reconstruction.
- European governments, as per the report, may tire of investing in Ukraine, leading to a potential decrease in foreign interest in the country and a large number of refugees (7 million) opting not to return home.
- The G7 leaders' summit and the NATO summit are scheduled for June, with Trump pledged to attend both events, where discussions about Ukraine are expected to be a key focus.
