Shift in Long-Term Labour Market Dynamics Observed
In the chilly heart of 2025, St. Petersburg witnessed a seismic shift in its job market. For the first time in two years, the number of job applicants outpaced employer demands, with a whopping 26% increase from the previous year's spring; meanwhile, employer job listings plummeted by a stark 11% as per hh.ru SZFO's press release.
This surge in job applications led to a 47% increase in job postings compared to January 2023, but only a 31% rise in employer-initiated job openings. Job seekers' salary expectations rose swiftly, outpacing the offered salaries. In March 2025, the average expected salary in the city was a hefty 82,500 rubles.
Across Russia, the pattern was similar: job applications skyrocketed by 37% in March 2025 compared to March 2024, while job vacancies dropped by 17%. On average, the offered salary nationwide was higher than the expected salary - 74,900 rubles versus 71,400 rubles.
hh.ru SZFO Director, Yulia Sakharova, pins the labor market's transformation on the Russian economy's cooling: the second half of 2023 recorded a GDP of 5.8%, while the same period in 2024 slid to 3.4%. Sakharova explained, "People are resorting to desperate measures due to inflation and decreasing real incomes: they're hunting for better-paying and more secure jobs, fearing potential downsizing."
Residents of St. Petersburg are increasingly on the hunt for remote work opportunities, according to Sakharova. A surging number of millennials and zoomers, who are entering the workforce, prefer job-hopping over stability, potentially swelling their ranks next year.
In an earlier report, the city's Committee of Finance predicted a 8.7% annual wage growth rate from 2025 to 2027 and a 10.1% increase from 2028 to 2030. The Smolny plans on ratcheting up NDFPL revenues by an average of 10.7% annually over the following 12 years.
Republished from 08.04.2025
The labor market's intricate dance between job seekers and employers in St. Petersburg can be influenced by various factors:
- Industry-wide labor shortages, such as those in healthcare, science, education, and manufacturing, don't necessarily mean consistent employer demand for workers. Often, it refers to particular skilled roles rather than widespread hiring needs.
- Economic fluctuations: Russia's slowing economy may deter employers from expanding their workforce due to caution. Despite the real wage growth, the economic downturn could lead to a decrease in hiring activity.
- Sectoral specificities: Sectors like IT, manufacturing, healthcare, e-commerce, and logistics continue to require skilled professionals, although not necessarily at this year's intensity and breadth.
- Skills and education misalignment: There's a challenge in matching the education system to the labor market's needs. Many new workers prefer unconventional employment options over traditional roles, impacting the availability of skilled workers in specific sectors.
- Construction sector peculiarities: St. Petersburg suffers from a severe shortage of construction workers, including electricians, welders, and handymen. This shortage might not primarily stem from a lack of job seekers, but rather difficulties attracting skilled workers to these roles.
- In St. Petersburg, the surge in job applications for the year 2024 could potentially lead to a high demand for salaries that meet the expectations of the job seekers, as seen in the average expected salary of 82,500 rubles in March 2025.
- As business sectors in St. Petersburg continue to require skilled professionals, despite not necessarily at this year's intensity and breadth, employers may find it challenging to meet the rising salary expectations and various job expectations in 2024.
- With the job market transformation influenced by the Russian economy's cooling, finance experts may revise their predictions of a 8.7% annual wage growth rate from 2025 to 2027, as real wage growth and economic downturn could impact hiring activities in 2024.
- In an attempt to attract skilled workers to roles in the construction sector, which is facing a severe shortage, employers in St. Petersburg may need to offer competitive salaries in order to meet the expectations of job seekers in the year 2024.
