Stock Market Performance: Increase in Dow Jones and S&P 500. NASDAQ Composite Ends Week at Historic Peak
Market Forecast: U.S. Indices Projected to Remain Strong
A cautiously optimistic outlook for the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and NASDAQ Composite has been predicted for the upcoming week, as of August 9, 2025 analysis. This positive forecast is supported by recent strong gains, moderate inflation easing, and rate hike concerns subsiding.
On August 13, all three indices reached record highs, with the Dow Jones up 1.10%, the S&P 500 up 1.13%, and the NASDAQ also hitting new highs.
Key factors influencing this forecast include moderate inflation data, a favourable Federal Reserve outlook, robust U.S. jobs data, and progress in trade deals, which have collectively fuelled optimism among investors.
The headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) for early August was in line or softer than expected year-over-year, boosting market hopes for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September. Markets now expect a 25 basis points rate cut at the upcoming meeting, which has further contributed to the positive market sentiment.
Despite some hawkish comments from Fed voters advocating a wait-and-see stance, the markets are expecting a rate cut, and this expectation has been reflected in the market's performance.
Recent U.S. jobs data exceeded expectations, further boosting market sentiment and contributing to recent gains in the major indices.
However, trade tensions and tariff uncertainty remain concerns that could present downside risks if unresolved. With trade deals progressing, the markets remain mostly encouraged.
In the near term, the market forecast is positive, expecting continued strength or stability in the Dow, S&P 500, and NASDAQ. Monitoring upcoming economic data and geopolitical developments remains important, as shifts there could impact this trajectory.
The NASDAQ Composite index currently has a support at 20,800, and a reversal in the US 10Yr Treasury Yield could take it below 4.2 per cent again. The dollar index was down about a percent last week and, if it breaks below 97.60, it could potentially fall to 97-96.50.
The NASDAQ Composite index rose 3.87% last week, recovering from almost all the losses made in the previous week. The S&P 500 index retains its 6,175-6,427 range, with resistance above the range around 6,470. The Dow Jones is currently oscillating between 43,300 and 45,000, with immediate support at 43,800-43,750.
The US Headline and Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) data release is due on Tuesday, and a higher inflation number in the CPI data could reduce the chances for the US Federal Reserve to cut rates. The CPI data release this week will need a close watch as it could have a positive impact on the dollar index.
In summary, based on the August 9 analysis and subsequent market performance, the major U.S. indices are forecast to trend higher or maintain gains in the week following August 9, 2025, underpinned by moderate inflation and strong employment data with the expectation of accommodative Fed policy. However, it is crucial to keep a close eye on upcoming economic data and geopolitical developments, as shifts there could impact this trajectory.
- The current market analysis indicates a positive outlook for business, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and NASDAQ Composite projected to remain strong, as of August 9, 2025.
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- Finance experts suggest looking at key factors influencing the market trajectory, such as moderate inflation data, favorable Federal Reserve outlook, robust U.S. jobs data, and progress in trade deals.
- In the near-term, it is essential to monitor upcoming economic data and geopolitical developments, as shifts there could impact the trend of major U.S. indices, like the Dow, S&P 500, and NASDAQ.
