Title: The Parallel Struggles of NFL Kickers and MLB Pitchers
As we plunge into the 2024 NFL season, the chatter surrounding kickers escalates, with critics suggesting they're simply too excellent - a notion that seems rather unfounded.
This brouhaha began in 2015 when the NFL started to adapt to the unprecedented prowess of the kicker position. Initially, they moved the extra point line back two yards. This decision was birthed from the growing scarcity of extra point misses. In 2005, for instance, NFL kickers boasted an impressive 98.7% success rate for extra points. A decade later, just before the league's modification, the mark soared to 99.3%.
The shift pushed the extra point success rate down to 94.2% in the inaugural year of its operation. Simultaneously, there was a surge in two-point attempts, contributing to the intriguing narrative shifting away from a kicker's ability to add a single point or to navigate simpler attempts when their team is deep in enemy territory.
Instead, we find ourselves enthralled by the powerhouse teams with a premier kicker on their roster. These teams hold the unique ability to reliably score three points as soon as they reach midfield.
From 2005 to 2014, with extra points being close to automatic and the overall league kicking at about 84%, 1,182 field goals from beyond 50 yards were attempted. That translates to approximately 131 attempts per season league-wide. Teams converted a mere 58.2% of these long-range kicks.
Only five kickers, such as Sebastian Janikowski, Josh Brown, Mason Crosby, Phil Sawson, and Jason Hanson, managed to attempt 40 or more of these distant shots during that period. Their longevity in the league came from the trust earned from favorable outcomes amidst such risky attempts.
Between 2015 and 2019, long-range attempts became more frequent, and the success rate improved to 62.8% per season. However, since 2020, this trend has continued to rise, with the following data:
2020: 106 for 168 (63.1%)2021: 120 for 181 (66.3%)2022: 154 for 224 (68.8%)2023: 158 for 230 (68.7%)2024: 195 for 279 (69.9%)
Although 2020 marked the introduction of the expanded 18-game NFL schedule, long-range kicks have continued to gain traction in each of the subsequent seasons.
Ten kickers this year have already attempted ten or more kicks beyond 50 yards, with all but one managing better success rates than the league average, led by Justin Tucker. Despite breaking his own record for field goal percentage, Tucker struggled to convert at a 73.3% rate in 2023, going 11 for 19 from beyond 40 yards.
Except for his minor trouble from distance, Tucker's accuracy when it comes to routine field goals remained spotless. However, many in the league have struggled to match his consistency, resulting in a significant drop in overall field goal percentage league-wide since 2014.
The reasoning behind this decline might not be as straightforward as one would assume, with increased attempts from distance contributing only partially to the equation. In truth, recruiting strategies have changed, favoring kickers with distance over consistency and accuracy.
Take the Dallas Cowboys, for example. Their kicker, Brandon Aubrey, has yet to fall short on a field goal attempt in his developing career, granted he hasn't had a significant amount of opportunities.
Similarly, the Cincinnati Bengals selected Evan McPherson and the Miami Dolphins Jake Moody in the early rounds, abandoning the traditional late-round picks of the previous era. This approach mirrors the scouting style in Major League Baseball, which prioritizes velocity and movement over accuracy and consistency.
Although scoring from midfield is a luxury during the NFL season, a kicker's performance in the fourth quarter often determines the outcome. Ultimately, we'll have to wait and see how the vulnerability for some teams striving for depth instead of consistency will impact their performance in the 2024-25 NFL playoffs, leaving fans on edge when the kicking units take the field.
In recent years, the NFL has seen an increase in long-range field goal attempts, with kickers like Justin Tucker leading the charge. Tucker, from the Baltimore Ravens, has attempted and converted a significant number of kicks beyond 50 yards, despite a minor drop in his success rate from beyond 40 yards in 2023. Meanwhile, teams like the Dallas Cowboys and the Cincinnati Bengals have shifted their recruiting strategies, focusing on kickers with impressive distance rather than consistency. Brandon Aubrey from the Cowboys and Evan McPherson from the Bengals are examples of this new approach, showcasing the changing landscape of NFL kickers.
