Trump readies for initial significant foreign policy journey of his second presidency
Hey there! Tomorrow, President Trump embarks on a Middle Eastern trip, his first sustained diplomatic excursion of his second term. His journey begins in a country undergoing transformation - Saudi Arabia.
In this dynamic kingdom, the aging ruler has handed power to his son and a younger generation, as the oil-centric economy undergoes a transition towards diversification. Simultaneously, societal norms have eased, with numerous restrictions on women lifted. We're chatting with NPR's International Correspondent, Aya Batrawy stationed in Riyadh for insights on the implications of these changes on U.S.-Saudi ties under Trump.
Easing Restrictions = New Faces of Saudi Arabia
"A decade ago, this was a conservative place. You wouldn’t hear music in public spaces, and there was no mixing of unrelated men and women. Now, when I'm out and about, I'm seeing women freely displaying their hair, showing their faces, and driving cars. It's an entirely different atmosphere here."
U.S.-Saudi Relations: Trump's Second Term Setting the Tone
"These transformations began around eight years ago during Trump’s first term, when the crown prince, Mohammed bin Salman, was rising to power. He had aggressive domestic and foreign policies at the time. However, he was globally criticized, such as for the killing of Saudi critic and Washington Post journalist Jamal Khashoggi. Yet, he maintained the support of Trump at the White House those years."
"Now, U.S.-Saudi relations between Trump and the crown prince are a longstanding bond. The crown prince has pledged $600 billion of Saudi money to invest in the U.S. over the next four years under Trump."
High-Stakes Deals Await President Trump
"From major business deals to unprecedented arms sales, expect the upcoming meeting to be action-packed. Trump mentioned potential deals reaching up to $100 billion in U.S. defense weaponry sales to Saudi Arabia."
"Experts like Elizabeth Dent, an analyst at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, predict limits under Biden are no more for Saudi Arabia. They anticipate air, land, sea, training, and munitions deals, and even infrastructure development collaborations."
What's Not in Store for Trump's Visit?
"Although the region is eager for an Abraham Accord—a deal normalizing relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel, similar to previous agreements between Israel and other Arab nations—current circumstances don’t seem to support it. Peace in Gaza is a prerequisite for Saudi Arabia's alliance with Israel, which seems unlikely at present."
Additionally, do not expect Trump to resurrect proposals such as taking control of Gaza, forcibly expelling all Palestinians, and permanently relocating them. Such ideas are deeply unpopular in the region and have been rejected by all sides.
Gulf Nations' Expectations Beyond Saudi Arabia
"Following his tour of Saudi Arabia, Trump plans to visit Qatar and the United Arab Emirates. These countries, too, seek economic opportunities, investments, and strategic alliances with the U.S., much like Saudi Arabia."
"Moreover, the three nations share concern over escalating tensions with Iran. In this context, they hope Trump will encourage diplomatic efforts towards resolving issues peacefully and countering Tehran's regional influence."
The Perspective of Gulf Leaders
"Gulf monarchs regard Trump as a more dependable ally compared to the current Biden administration. Some analysts maintain that Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and other nearby states prefer strong American involvement to ensure regional stability and counterbalance rival powers like China."
"While competing powers like China maintain strong ties with Gulf nations, the U.S. remains their primary security partner. These countries desire to be heard, consulted, and viewed as strategic partners by the U.S., strengthening the long-term partnership between these nations."
"To further diversify the economy, technology is expected to play a significant role in Saudi Arabia's transition, as the country looks to tap into advanced sectors and reduce its dependence on oil. The government has shown willingness to invest in technology and has even announced plans to build a passionate community for technology innovation, sustaining the vision for a digitally-driven nation."
"As President Trump meets with government officials, business leaders, and financiers, the discussions are bound to touch upon the impact of changing political dynamics on the overall economy. The general news headlines will likely reflect the negotiations' success or potential hurdles that might arise during these crucial talks."
"The newfound political and social transformations in Saudi Arabia may influence the country's position within the global arena, including its relationship with allies and competitors alike. The economy, finance, and politics will undoubtedly be key components in shaping Saudi Arabia's standing at the international level."
