U.S. President Donald Trump urges China to increase their import of soybeans from the U.S. fourfold, as the deadline for their trade truce approaches.
In the ongoing trade war between the US and China, the impact of increased US soybean exports to China on the trade deficit and US farmers in 2025 is limited and uncertain. This is due to a shift in Chinese demand towards Brazilian soybeans, which has kept US exports subdued.
New US soybean export sales are at a 20-year low around 3 million metric tons, with China not having bought any new-crop soybeans by late July. This delay dampens prospects for significant soybean export growth to China in the current marketing year.
China’s soybean imports from Brazil dominate, with Brazil shipping record volumes and offering lower prices and logistical advantages over US soybeans. Brazil controls roughly 80% of China’s soybean imports in 2025, while US market share remains minimal.
The lack of increased US soybean exports to China has contributed to a record agricultural trade deficit for the US in early 2025 of $4.1 billion as US exports lag behind imports.
Despite political signals like President Trump’s call to quadruple soybean imports from China, skepticism prevails in the market about China dramatically increasing purchases from the US soon.
For US farmers, the weak Chinese demand limits price and export growth prospects. However, strong domestic demand has kept soybean prices relatively firm, supported by record soybean crush in July 2025 for oil production.
A potential trade deal or tariff relief terms could boost export prospects and provide a positive boost to farmers, but that remains uncertain.
It is worth noting that the bulk of China's soyabean imports from the US usually occur in November, December, and January. If no agreement is reached in the trade talks, the US and China risk reimposing tariffs that could amount to an "embargo".
US President Donald Trump has called on China to quadruple its imports of American soybeans. However, China's retaliatory measures in the ongoing trade war have targeted soybeans, beef, pork, seafood, cotton, chicken, and corn.
The US and China have met in London and Stockholm for negotiations regarding the extension of the truce, with Beijing also suspending its retaliatory tariffs for the same period. The truce is set to expire on Tuesday.
Reporting by Wenjie Ding in Beijing.
[1] Source: USDA, Reuters [2] Source: Bloomberg, USDA [3] Source: Wall Street Journal [4] Source: CNBC [5] Source: USDA, Bloomberg
- The finance industry is closely monitoring the trade talks between the US and China, as a potential trade deal could significantly impact US soybean exports and, consequently, the agricultural business sector.
- Despite political efforts to boost US soybean exports to China, such as President Trump's call to quadruple imports, the industry remains skeptical about China dramatically increasing purchases from the US due to retaliatory measures in the ongoing trade war.
- The general news landscape is filled with discussions about the trade war and its effects on various industries, with business leaders and political pundits frequently debating the impact of China's soybean imports on US trade deficits and farmer income.
