A Sneak Peek at the Kremlin's Struggling Influence: Mishustin's Uzbek Visit
Uzbekistan evades Russian attempts to strengthen bilateral relations
The recent two-day visit of Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin to Uzbekistan shines a light on the waning might of Moscow's geopolitical power play these days. Arriving with high expectations of snaring Uzbekistan into Russia's fold, Mishustin departed with little of substance to show for it.
Uzbekistan, alongside other Central Asian nations, has walked a tightrope since Russia's unwarranted invasion of Ukraine in early 2022. Their aim: to avoid stirring the Kremlin's ire and Vladimir Putin while steering clear of the conflict. Helping keep the Moscow bear content is the fact these nations have acted as a clandestine trade corridor, unofficially easing the burden of Western sanctions on Russia and maintaining its war machinery functioning.
Mishustin landed in Uzbekistan on September 9 with ambitious plans to win Tashkent's pledge as a full member of the Moscow-dominated Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU). According to TASS news agency, Mishustin stated during a meeting of the joint Russian-Uzbek governmental commission, "Uzbekistan's participation in Eurasian integration can offer additional advantages for business. Primarily, through the opening of new sales markets and fostering fair competition."
Experts interviewed by URA news agency speculated that Russia's ultimate goal is Uzbekistan's entry into the EAEU due to its burgeoning population. Russia, on the other hand, grapples with a demographic catastrophe worsened by massive, relentlessly rising war casualties. Uzbekistan boasts a young, rapidly growing populace. Russia yearns for extra bodies to ensure a stable economic future.
As the joint commission meeting ensued, Mishustin expressed hopes of collaborating on a venture to produce drones for "civilian" purposes. This suggestion elicited intrigue among local observers, given that an entity in Kazakhstan has already been slapped with US sanctions for supplying Russia with dual-use components, including drone parts utilized against Ukrainian forces.
Uzbek officials remained attentive during the Russian proposals, but contingently made no indications of complying with Moscow's wishes. A statement issued by President Shavkat Mirziyoyev's office following a September 10 meetup with the Russian prime minister offered the usual sweet nothings on the significance of the bilateral "strategic partnership" without mentioning the EAEU or specific joint projects. The joint commission's outcome the day prior was equally unimpressive. Discussions revolved around boosting trade and investment and following up on already-agreed-upon projects during Putin's visit to Uzbekistan last May. However, the talks yielded few tangible results.
Three relatively minor agreements were signed at the conclusion of the commission session, including one on accelerating the transportation of agricultural products via rail and another covering standardized labeling of medicinal products. The third item was a protocol regarding the training of medical personnel. The most noteworthy development stemming from the visit appeared to be the signing of a protocol concerning the implementation of an agreement signed back in May, where Russia committed to constructing up to six low-power nuclear reactors in Uzbekistan to generate electricity. Uzbek officials anticipate the first reactor could go online within five years.
During the commission meeting, Mishustin expressed satisfaction with the energy partnership between the two countries, particularly the supply of natural gas, oil, and petroleum products from Russia to Uzbekistan. Uzbekistan, for its part, is purchasing Russian natural gas at an attractive price of $160 per thousand cubic meters (tcm), while China was reportedly charged just over $286/tcm in 2023 by Russian energy behemoth Gazprom. This low purchase price of Russian gas helps explain why Uzbekistan, abundantly endowed with gas reserves, has transformed into a net importer. Subsidized gas prices benefit Uzbek domestic consumers.
In Summary:Russia's overtures to integrate Uzbekistan into the EAEU constitute a multi-pronged strategy. The objectives are to expand economic influence across Central Asia, strengthen geopolitical clout, and secure easier access to Uzbekistan's natural resources. The potential benefits for Uzbekistan include economic integration, infrastructure development, and access to a larger market. Nevertheless, integration could challenge Uzbekistan's sovereignty, create economic dependence on Russia, and intensify competition from more developed economies. As of now, Uzbekistan remains outside the EAEU, and any integration would necessitate extensive negotiations and agreements.
- The recent news about Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin's visit to Uzbekistan is a part of the larger story of Russia's struggle to maintain its influence, particularly in the realm of business and industry.
- The geopolitical game is complex, with nations like Uzbekistan carefully navigating policies and legislation, including their relationships with world powers and regional rivals, such as Russia, in the wake of recent conflicts like the war in Ukraine.
- Financing and energy also play significant roles in this delicate dance, as Russia attempts to secure Uzbekistan's entry into the Moscow-dominated Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) for economic benefits and access to Uzbekistan's natural resources.
- Meanwhile, developments in the realm of war and conflicts, like sanctions and dual-use component supply, inhibit easy integrations and cooperation, as local observers in Uzbekistan ponder the potential implications for their country's sovereignty and independence.
