Vietnamese Tra fish exports anticipated to almost hit $2 billion by 2025

Vietnamese Tra fish exports anticipated to almost hit $2 billion by 2025

Woohoo! Here's the gist of Vietnam's tra fish export gameplan for 2025:

2025 Export Forecast

Get ready to see those dollar bills, y'all! The Vietnamese Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers (VASEP) predicts that tra fish exports will maintain strength in 2025, reaching an estimated $2 billion in revenue - spot on with 2024 figures.

The reason behind this momentum? The worldwide economic recovery following the pandemic and the increase in demand for affordable protein sources like tra fish. Additionally, trade agreements like the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) and the ASEAN Free Trade Agreement (ATIGA) are paving the way to key markets, such as Thailand, Mexico, and Brazil.

China: The Spotlight Market

China continues to dominate, despite a slight dip in export prices. In the last quarter of 2024, China MDMAped, shifting exports to a whopping $163 million, a 17% year-on-year increase. For the whole year, that's $581 million in exports, marking a meager 1% uptick from 2023.

The fascinating part? Chinese consumers can't seem to get enough of frozen tra fish fillets, making up 60% of the market share. For 2025, demand is tipped to stay robust due to China's economic stimulus policies and real estate market recovery.

Challenges Ahead

VASEP cautions us not to get complacent. In the land of the red, white, and blue, uncertainty over trade tariffs could dampen the lust for raw materials by April 2025, forcing exporters to roll up their sleeves and tighten their belts. Moreover, escalating production costs and stiff competition from other whitefish species, like serious shrimp, add to the pressure. A move toward lower-value whole tra fish products could potentially squeeze profit margins.

Staying Competitive

To overcome these hurdles, VASEP offers sound advice. Businesses should fine-tune production to match market demands and take advantage of trade deals' perks, like negotiations for ASEAN-China Free Trade Agreement (ACFTA) version 3.0. Strike a tariff agreement with the US, and Vietnam could regain its footing in that market, emphasizing the need for investing in value-added products, such as processed pangasius, to cater to evolving preferences and sustain export growth.

Heck Yeah, Q1 Growth

The recovery continued strong in March, with exports reaching $182 million, a 21% MoM and 16% YoY increase. Total export volume hit 79,000 tonnes, signifying a 23% YoY spike. The average export price edged up by 2%, to $2.28 per kilo. Key markets like the UK, China, Hong Kong, the EU, Brazil, the US, Mexico, and ASEAN all showed growth ranging from 11% to 120%. China kept its top spot, importing over 21,000 tonnes of tra fish, worth $38 million - a 6% YoY increase, despite a 4.2% dip in average export price to $2.04/kg, following six consecutive months of price increases.

Stay tuned for more updates on Vietnam's tra fish exports! Let's hope they don't get Too $hortchanged by the challenges ahead. 🤘😎

Enrichment Data:

• Vietnam's tra fish exports show moderate growth with emerging challenges in 2025. Here's a detailed analysis:

Market Trends

• Growth Patterns: Tra fish exports reached $465 million in Q1 2025, a 13% YoY increase[2][5]. March saw $182 million in exports, up 16% YoY[2].
• Key Markets:
• Brazil has emerged as a high-growth market, with February exports skyrocketing 159% YoY to $15 million[1].
• China, the US, and the EU remain critical, though tra fish growth lags behind shrimp due to geopolitical uncertainties and anti-dumping duties in the US[4][5].
• Product Shifts: Exporters are focusing on higher-value processed products to improve margins, capitalizing on stable raw material prices[5].

Challenges

• US Market Barriers: Anti-dumping duties persist, incentivizing diversification to markets like Brazil and ASEAN[1][5].
• Geopolitical and Regulatory Pressures:
• China’s demand fluctuations post-Lunar New Year affect stability[3].
• Stricter EU regulations on IUU (Illegal, Unreported, Unregulated) fishing indirectly pressure compliance standards globally[5].
• Competition: Tra fish faces price competition amid cooling demand in early 2025, while shrimp outpaces growth (35.7% vs. 13% for tra fish)[3][5].

Impact of Trade Agreements

• EVFTA (EU-Vietnam FTA): While shrimp benefits more directly, tra fish gains from tariff reductions on processed goods, though growth is tempered by non-tariff barriers (e.g., sustainability certifications)[3][5].
• Bilateral Efforts: Exports to Brazil’s Mercosur bloc highlight opportunities from new trade dialogues, though no formal agreement is yet in place[1][4].
• US Market Dynamics: The absence of progressive trade mechanisms exacerbates reliance on market-specific strategies to mitigate duty-related costs[5].

Outlook

Packing tra fish fillets for export at a Sao Mai Group's factory. VNA/VNS Photo Vũ Sinh - VNA

The sector aims to balance market diversification (e.g., Brazil, ASEAN) with compliance upgrades to meet evolving EU and US standards. However, slower tra fish growth compared to shrimp underscores the need for product innovation and cost-competitiveness in key markets[3][5].

1. The Vietnamese tra fish export industry foresees maintaining growth in 2025, aiming for $2 billion in revenue, similar to 2024 figures.
2. This projected growth is attributed to the global economic recovery following the pandemic and increased demand for affordable protein sources like tra fish.
3. Trade agreements such as CPTPP and ATIGA are facilitating access to key markets like Thailand, Mexico, and Brazil.
4. China continues to be a significant market for tra fish, with a 17% YoY increase in exports to $163 million in Q4 2024 and $581 million for the whole year, showing a 1% uptick from 2023.
5. The demand for frozen tra fish fillets in China is robust due to economic stimulus policies and the recovery of the real estate market.
6. Challenges in 2025 include uncertainties over trade tariffs in the US, escalating production costs, and fierce competition with other whitefish species like shrimp.
7. To stay competitive, businesses should adjust production to match market demands, utilize trade deal benefits, and focus on value-added products like processed pangasius.
8. In Q1 2025, tra fish exports reached $465 million, a 13% YoY increase, with key markets like China, the US, and the EU showing growth despite some market challenges.

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