Will copper prices hit $5 per pound by the year 2025?
In the world of commodities, copper has been making headlines for its recent price movements and the factors driving its demand.
Tariffs have caused a significant and unparalleled price disparity between the COMEX futures and the LME forwards. This disparity has been a notable feature in the market, with the COMEX futures experiencing more volatility compared to the LME forwards.
The supply-demand equation for copper favours higher prices, and this trend is further reinforced by the critical role copper plays in green energy initiatives. As the world shifts towards renewable energy sources, the demand for copper is expected to expand beyond traditional infrastructure building and other applications.
The daily year-to-date chart of the continuous COMEX futures shows a recovery since July 31, with prices making higher lows and higher highs. This bullish pattern is also evident in the quarterly COMEX and LME three-month forwards charts, which have shown a consistent trend of higher lows and higher highs since the early part of this century.
China, the world's leading copper consumer, is expected to increase its demand due to its growing economy. Three-month copper forwards on the London Metals Exchange had a far less volatile year than the COMEX futures in 2025, but they too have been on an upward trajectory, reaching over $10,000 per ton on September 12.
The U.S. Copper ETF (CPER) tracks the price of COMEX copper futures and owns a portfolio of actively traded COMEX copper futures. As of publication, CPER had $187.33 million in assets under management and trades an average of over 235,000 shares daily. On July 31, 2025, COMEX copper futures were at the $4.4255 per pound level. However, by September 15, 2025, COMEX copper futures had recovered from the July lows.
The supply of copper is likely to decline after the late 2020s, leading to a potential 30% supply shortfall by 2035. This looming supply shortage, coupled with the increasing demand, suggests that higher copper prices are on the horizon.
However, it's important to note that the U.S. Copper ETF is typically managed by established asset management firms or investment institutions. The future developments for the U.S. Copper ETF depend on market demand, copper price trends, and investment innovations within the ETF structure.
In conclusion, the bullish trend in copper prices is driven by a combination of factors, including its critical role in green energy initiatives, increasing demand from China, and the looming supply shortage. Investors interested in the copper market may find the U.S. Copper ETF (CPER) an attractive option for tracking the price movements of COMEX copper futures.
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