World's renewable energy sources projected to overtake fossil fuels and become dominant by 2026, according to International Energy Agency (IEA) predictions
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has released a new analysis that highlights the growing demand for electricity in various sectors, including industry, domestic use, transport, heat, and data centres. The demand is driven by a combination of factors such as industrial growth, appliance use, air conditioning, heat electrification, transport electrification, and data centre expansion.
According to the IEA, the global energy demand will grow by approximately 3.3% in 2025 and 3.7% in 2026, with the majority of this increase being met by renewable sources. Particularly, wind and solar power are forecast to grow from over 4,000 TWh in 2024 to more than 6,000 TWh by 2026. This growth is driven by several key factors, including rising global temperatures increasing residential air conditioning use, the expansion of data centres and cloud computing infrastructure, widespread electrification across various sectors, policy changes encouraging adoption of renewables and electric vehicles, and significant deployment of solar and wind globally, with China playing a major role.
While renewables grow rapidly, natural gas generation will also increase modestly (~1.3%) alongside nuclear (~2%), helping to balance the grid during the transition period. Nuclear and gas are expected to reach record highs by 2026.
The IEA attributes the coming decline of coal to "continued renewables growth and higher coal-to-gas switching in multiple regions". By 2026, renewables are expected to make up 36% of global power supplies, against just 32% from coal. The global reduction in coal-fired electricity generation will be partially offset by increases in the US, India, and other Asian nations.
In an interesting turn of events, renewables (wind, solar, hydro, bioenergy, and geothermal) could overtake coal as early as this year, depending on weather-related impacts on the output of wind and hydro capacity. This shift marks a significant milestone, as coal’s share of global electricity generation is expected to fall below 33% for the first time in a century.
In summary, the global electricity demand increase from 2024 to 2026 will be mostly accommodated by wind and solar power growth, driven by climate-induced cooling demands, digital economy expansion, and strong policy support for clean energy. The IEA's analysis underscores the increasing demand in sectors like industry, domestic use, transport, heat, and data centres, due to factors such as growth, appliance use, air conditioning, heat electrification, transport electrification, and data centre expansion.
- The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts that wind and solar power will grow from over 4,000 TWh in 2024 to more than 6,000 TWh by 2026, driven by factors such as climate-induced cooling demands, digital economy expansion, and strong policy support for clean energy.
2.In line with this growth, renewables could surpass coal as early as this year, potentially marking a significant milestone in the energy transition, as coal’s share of global electricity generation is expected to fall below 33% for the first time in a century.
- According to the IEA, the global energy transition will rely heavily on renewable energy sources, with renewables making up 36% of global power supplies by 2026, against just 32% from coal.
- The growth of renewable energy sources is attributed to several factors, including policy changes encouraging the adoption of renewables and electric vehicles, significant deployment of solar and wind globally, and a decline in coal-fired electricity generation due to continued growth in renewables and higher coal-to-gas switching in multiple regions.
- The increase in global electricity demand will result in a growing role for the industry, environment, and science sectors, particularly in areas like industry, domestic use, transport, heat, and data centres, due to factors such as growth, appliance use, air conditioning, heat electrification, transport electrification, and data centre expansion.
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